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Our Lowrisk Market Allocation Model is a proprietary model that was designed as an intermediate term timing system. The model generates a "signal strength" that varies between 0 and 20. The higher the number, the more bullish the model. The model uses a variety of sub models that break down as follows:

  • Internals Model - based primarily on NYSE market internals such as advancing volume, declining volume, advancing issues and declining issues. The internals portion of the model account for approximately 34% of the signal strength.
  • Price Action Model - based on the price action of the DJIA and the SP500 on both a daily and weekly basis. The price action is primarily trend following and accounts for about 30% of the signal strength.
  • Interest Rate Model- based on the current interest rate environment. We use short term and intermediate term rates, as well as the price of the Dow Jones Utilities. The interest rate portion accounts for approximately 28% of the signal strength.
  • Economic Fundamentals Model- based on data such as dividend yield and inflation. This data accounts for about 8% of the model's signal strength.
These four proprietary components are combined daily to calculate the Signal Strength for the model. The signal strength is calculated after the close of trading, and positions are initiated at the market close on the next day.

Take a look at the four ways we use the model's signal strenth for managing our portfolios:

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Published by Lowrisk Market Analytics.
Copyright © 1997, 1998, 1999 Jeff Walker. All rights reserved.
Information in this document is subject to change without notice.